WE RAN AN ELECTION SIMULATOR 200 TIMES. HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED.
We obsessively refreshed a predictive statistics site based on poll numbers, state by state, from May 31st-June 1st. Some pundits like our own Carl Diggler use gut: for the rest of us, here is where we are today.
- •We know you just want the numbers."What are the percentages?" You ask.
- •You'll get them. But first, click through.Okay, you're here
- •You did it! Here's a puppy to celebrate.On to the data.
- •First: an explanation of the simulator.The 270towin simulator uses state polls to simulate likelihood, creating a range of options individually. Through repetition, you can see patterns of likelihood emerge.
- •Here's how it worksAs it uses contemporary data, before Clinton wraps up the nomination. It can't predict how the candidates will fare. It's also geared to individual states rather than swing-states "domino" falling together. This creates fewer blowouts, which Trump may need. It also doesn't factor in a third party emergence or have a model for Bernie Sanders.
- •We did it 200 times to get a statistical range for the moment with a large enough sample size to merit consideration.Because doing something 100 times just ain't good enough.
- •And now, the stats (for real)
- •In our simulation, Hillary Clinton won 168 times. Donald Trump won 31. 1 time, it was an electoral tie.84% of the time, the map went for Clinton, and 15.5% it went for Trump. It was once a tie, offering a 0.5% chance for President Ryan.
- •Considering the obsessive Lamentations of Hillary's weaknesses and how close Trump is in polls, it's worth considering that, at present, Hillary is leading more than 5-1 in simulations.If she can consolidate the party, or if a third party gives a Conservative alternative to Trump, things could change furthers
- •Now, some casual observations.
- •Florida is do-or-die for Trump, where Hillary leads.Insulting Rubio and Bush may hurt establishment efforts to consolidate.
- •Florida isn't do-or-die for Hillary, however.She has more flexibility.
- •Hillary wins a general election through multiple paths. If she retains Florida and Pennsylvania, she wins. If she doesn't, but sweeps the Michigan/Wisconsin/Minnesota north, she wins. If she gets Virginia and North Carolina and doesn't lose too badly, she wins.Meanwhile, if she steals Arizona, New Mexico, Iowa and/or Colorado, that forgives quite a bit. Ditto for Georgia.
- •Trump, meanwhile, needs northeast swing-states sweep *and* Florida to win.If Trump gets Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, that isn't enough if Hillary holds Florida and Virginia. Trump adds Minnesota and Wisconsin, that still doesn't seal it is Virginia takes Colorado and North Carolina, let alone Arizona.
- •In short, Hillary can paint quite a few paths to win. And she's leading in those states.
- •Trump, meanwhile, has less room for error.And does this look like the face of a fuck-up?