About 50 days ago, at the end of June, we declared that Trump wouldn't win. Today, in mid August, we stand by that prediction with new and improved evidence we're excited to share with you. Since @juliemiller501 enjoyed our last list, we thought we'd give her an extra dose.
  1. Look at this.
    The August 12th updated electoral map, based on states with an aggregated 5% lead or greater already had the field clinched for Clinton*. No swing states. No Florida. A win.
  2. Swing states have a variety of helpful paths. North Carolina struck down Republican led voter ID laws that skewed the state Bluer. John Kasich is still refusing to aid Trump in Ohio. Tim Kaine helps shore up Virginia for Clinton.
    All small updates, but all of them have broken for Clinton of late.
  3. Clinton is well prepped for this stage. She leads Trump in staffers 742 to 70, and in Olympic ad spending $13.6 million to $0.
    One side is playing to win. Guess which.
  4. People are changing their minds from Trump
    This USC daily poll is unique in that it (A) over-sampled Republicans and (B) re-polls the same people every day. You can see for the first time Clinton leads this poll by 3.5% percentage points, up from being down by 7.4% at her lowest. People are changing from Trump, and, given his stubborn personality, it's hard to see him winning them back.
  5. Time is slipping through Trump's stubby fingers.
    Trump has 86 days to turn this around. 86 days is a long time, but it isn't *that* long. We put a similar list up when he had 133 days left. In those 47 days between our lists, he's only *lost* ground. It's hard to picture how he can turn it around: if he could, he would've.
  6. Trump knows he's going to lose.
    "Rigged" is code for "it's not my fault when I lose!"
  7. Clinton smells blood.
    Her campaign is moving in Utah and Texas. Texas. She's pulled ads in Colorado and Pennsylvania to put those funds from defense to offense. She's trying to run up the score.
  8. Worry isn't the same as truth.
    Listen: we worry all the time. The media makes money exploiting that fear and anxiety. It's exciting, addictive. But it isn't true. The polls were the only thing that predicted Trump in the primary, and those same polls are predicting his defeat in the general election.
  9. If you're a liberal who's afraid of Trump, it might be helpful to see what Republicans think.
    Paul Ryan's is not the gaze of a man on the winning team.