When We'll Get Results — and What They Might Be — From the 12 States Voting Today
Today is Super Tuesday: Voters in 12 states are heading to the polls and to caucuses to vote. It's also called the SEC primary, since so many Southern states are in play. The earliest results will start to come in around 7 pm. But the full picture won't be clear until early Wednesday morning Eastern time. Full story: http://bit.ly/216FCdo
- •Alabama: Polls close at 7 pm EasternWho's voting: Republicans and Democrats Delegates: 50 Republicans (20% threshold); 53 Democrats (all states have a 15% threshold) The polls predict: Trump wins; Clinton trounces Sanders Recent Republican polls show Trump is leading, and that Rubio and Cruz could struggle to hit the 20% threshold needed to win any Republican delegates. On the Dem. side, two polls show Clinton with a strong lead, although Sanders is likely to clear Democrats' 15% threshold and pick up a few delegates, too
- •Georgia: Polls close at 7 pm EasternWho's voting: Republicans and Democrats Delegates: 76 Republicans (20 percent threshold); 102 Democrats The polls predict: Trump and Clinton win Trump is leading recent Georgia polls comfortably. Rubio and Cruz are battling it out for second place in the state. Clinton seems likely to repeat her dominant performance from South Carolina. In 2008, 52 percent of Democratic primary voters were black, and Sanders has struggled to attract African Americans.
- •Vermont: Polls close at 7 pm EasternWho's voting: Republicans and Democrats Delegates: 16 Republicans (20 percent threshold); 16 Democrats The polls predict: Sanders wins his home state There's been only one poll of Republicans in the state this election cycle, and it's from the first half of February. But New England is a Trump stronghold: A Morning Consult poll found 52% of voters in the region support him. For Democrats, Bernie Sanders's home state of Vermont is a must-win, and probably a lock, for him.
- •Virginia: Polls close at 7 pm EasternWho's voting: Republicans and Democrats Delegates: 49 Republicans (no threshold); 95 Democrats The polls predict: Trump and Clinton win Three recent polls in Virginia show Trump leading there by double digits, although suburban parts of the state are key to Rubio's new strategy of coming in second and holding on by winning suburban voters. On the Democratic side, Virginia is seen as a Clinton stronghold; she's leading the polls by 20 points.
- •Massachusetts: Polls close at 8 pm EasternWho's voting: Republicans and Democrats Delegates: 42 Republicans (5 percent threshold); 91 Democrats The polls predict: Trump wins; a close race for Democrats Massachusetts is a key state for Sanders, and polls show the race is close: RealClearPolitics' polling average has Clinton leading, but by a slim margin. Trump looks like he'll romp to victory over Republicans by a huge margin.
- •Oklahoma: Polls close at 8 pm Eastern (7 pm local time)Who's voting: Republicans and Democrats Delegates: 43 Republicans (15 percent threshold); 38 Democrats The polls predict: Trump wins; a close race for Democrats Two polls in the past week have found Trump ahead in Oklahoma, with Cruz and Rubio neck and neck for second place. On the Democratic side, the three polls taken since the Iowa caucuses are all over the place. RealClearPolitics' average has Clinton within the margin of error; FiveThirtyEight predicts a Sanders win.
- •Tennessee: Polls close at 8 pm Eastern (7 or 8 pm local time)Who's voting: Republicans and Democrats Delegates: 58 Republicans (20 percent threshold); 67 Democrats The polls predict: Trump and Clinton win (the polls aren't great) There's been just one recent poll of Republicans in Tennessee's primary, which found Donald Trump ahead with 40 percent of the vote. Polls are hardly less sparse on the Democratic side, where two polls since mid-February have found Clinton has a commanding lead over Sanders.
- •Texas: Polls close at 8 pm Eastern (7 pm local time), mostly. Two Texas counties, El Paso and Hudspeth, are in the Mountain time zone. Polls there close at 9 pm Eastern time.Who's voting: Republicans and Democrats Delegates: 155 Republicans (20 percent threshold); 222 Democrats The polls predict: Clinton wins; Cruz should win his home state Texas's primary is a must-win for Sen. Ted Cruz — it's his home state and the only state polled regularly where he's leading. A loss to Trump would be crushing. The latest polls have Cruz ahead by about 8 points. Meanwhile, Clinton has a comfortable lead over Sanders in five recent polls.
- •Arkansas: Polls close at 8:30 pm Eastern (7:30 pm local time)Who's voting: Republicans and Democrats Delegates: 40 Republicans (15 percent threshold); 32 Democrats The polls predict: Clinton wins her erstwhile home state Arkansas primary polls are pretty few and far between on both sides, but Clinton was once first lady of AK, and two polls from February both show her with the lead. There's been just one poll of AK Republicans, which showed Cruz leading. But it was taken right after the Iowa caucuses, arguably the high point of Cruz campaign.
- •Minnesota: Caucuses start at 8 pm Eastern (7 pm local time). Caucuses must last at least an hour, meaning voting will end at 8 pm Central (9 pm Eastern) at the earliest. But it could go longer if participants are still debating.Who's voting: Republicans and Democrats Delegates: 38 Republicans (10 percent threshold); 77 Democrats The polls predict: Not enough polls to tell. Caucuses are hard to poll in the first place, and in Minnesota, no one appears to even really be trying. A poll from the Star Tribune, the state's largest newspaper, in mid-January found Clinton ahead among Democrats and Rubio barely leading among Republicans.
- •Colorado: Caucuses start at 9 pm Eastern (7 pm local time)Who's voting: Democrats (Republicans are holding caucuses, but without a presidential preference vote) Delegates: 66 Democratic delegates The polls predict: Not enough polls to tell. The last poll of Democrats in Colorado was in Nov. One note: Colorado's caucuses work like Iowa's — caucus-goers are actually voting for delegates to attend the county convention, who then pick delegates to attend the state convention. Which makes determining who won the state a bit more complicated anyway.
- •Alaska: Voting ends at midnight Eastern (8 pm local time). Alaska has a "presidential preference poll," which is sort of like a caucus without any speeches or other party business.Who's voting: Republicans (Democrats caucus March 26) Delegates: 28 Republican delegates (13 percent threshold) The polls predict: Not enough polls to tell, but maybe a Trump victory? The one poll in Alaska taken in 2016 was published before any early states started voting, but it found Trump leading. As Trump's numbers have only gotten better since then, that seems to be a good sign for the national frontrunner, but it's impossible to say with any precision.
- •ElsewhereAmerican Samoa is holding Democratic caucuses (six delegates up for grabs) on Tuesday as well. Democrats Abroad, which represents Democratic voters living overseas and sends 12 delegates pledged to candidates to the national convention, begins a week-long primary March 1, including some opportunities to vote in person. Voting ends March 8.