HOW TO MAKE SENSE OF TONIGHT'S CAUCUS RESULTS
In a few hours, voters in Iowa will begin the confusing and mysterious ritual of caucusing for the Presidential nomination in both major parties. While we won't have firm results until much later tonight, here's a few pointers on how to make sense of the results.
- •Compare results to expectations!You don't need to WIN the Iowa caucuses for them to have a positive impact on your campaign! The candidates are graded on something of a bell curve here. While Trump and Clinton have to win to walk away unscathed, other candidates have lower expectations. Marco Rubio needs a strong third place. O'Malley needs to get 15% of the delegates in at least a few precincts. Jeb Bush only needs to avoid dying of patheticness!
- •Poll results are not always accurate!People (Donald Trump) have been making a lot of noise about poll numbers, but how much do they really reflect the true intentions of the voting public? It turns out, not very much! Polls are conducted via landlines, which leaves anyone who left the cave a million years ago out of the sample. Also, in keeping with millennia of political tradition, polls are conducted in Esperanto.
- •Caucus turn out tends to be low.Primaries in general see low voter turn out, but when you take into consideration the bizarre rituals of the Iowa Caucuses, turn out drops even further. Plus, it's the golden age of television, so no thinking person would leave their house for a few hours to stand at a place!
- •The numbers will take some divining!The numbers aren't going to speak for themselves! It takes a little bit of analysis to really understand the results of the Iowa Caucuses. You must burn the parties' winners in effigy, mix the resulting ashes in the blood of the second place finisher, and smear the resulting paste on photographs of the remaining candidates. Whoever's eyes are covered, will be dead by the next full moon. They will cry out the name of another candidate, who will win the nomination.
- •Iowa Caucusers may not have heard about Kid Rock!Earlier today, Rolling Stone published an interview with Robert "Kid Rock" Ritchie. In it, he voiced his support for Donald Trump. Some caucus-goers may not have come across the article, and some may not even see it until the paper issue comes out! Kid Rock is a real bellwether when it comes to US politics!