He did it. Here are some reasons why. cc: @amyamy @jennikonner @Ayelet @Hilary @hate_my_selfie
  1. Occam's Razor: the least complicated explanation is usually correct.
    Adnan had motive and means, and a witness - at least for the burial, if not more. What he lacks is an alibi: sure, I may not remember what I was up to on a random day at 3pm, but I remember what I was up to when I heard shocking/upsetting news ala "we can't find your ex."
  2. But what about that witness? Jay's unreliable!
    Yes, Jay changed his story and generally seemed shady. I think Jay knew more than he let on, but as the resident black guy/drug dealer, he also knew that if he admitted as much, he could get the whole thing pinned on him. He was attempting to help himself stay clear of the whole thing by telling the truth - Adnan did it - but maybe not the whole truth (did he really not know ahead of seeing the body that Adnan was going to do it and need help after?).
  3. But Adnan seems so nice! They love him in jail!
    Guess who else seemed so nice? Ted Bundy. There's a long history of charming sociopaths who are just delightful but also murderers.
  4. But he seemed so hurt whenever Sarah Koenig questioned his story and his timeline!
    This is the biggest indicator for me that he did it, actually. The tactic of turning the tables and asking for sympathy when someone questions your story is a well-used tactic by liars/people who have something to hide. Rather than answer directly and truthfully, they steer the conversation into "I'm sorry I'm not giving you the answers you want, I guess you're right to hate me just like everyone else" territory, hiding the fact that they didn't give a straight answer.
  5. Whoa, where'd you get that idea?
    There's a great book called The Sociopath Next Door that talks all about these types of people and how they operate. A fascinating read that I highly recommend.
  6. So you're saying Adnan is a sociopath who played Koenig et al like a fiddle?
    I'm not sure. I think there's an outside possibility that at this point he's convinced himself he didn't do it.
  7. But what do you really think?
    I think he was a kid who did a terrible thing but who strangely doesn't seem to have any regret or sympathy about Hae being dead. It's all about HIM. I also think that, like Robert Durst, this podcast coming into his life brought some excitement into his routine jail schedule. The chance to plead his case to bleeding-heart liberals? Come on.
  8. So there's no way he'd ever confess to Koenig? He's already in jail, he can't be tried again.
    First off, I think he does think his appeal might go through. Second, I think he's protecting his family at this point. They've already been through so much terrible press and heartache - if he were to now tell the truth they'd be hit even harder.
  9. But he totally got an unfair trial!
    Well, yes, he did. His lawyer's many mistakes (and shrill questioning style) are just the tip of the shitty trial iceberg.
  10. And The Innocence Project wanted to help!
    They wanted to help because he didn't get a fair trial more than anything else, it seemed to me.
  11. There's also that lead Koenig runs down but ultimately doesn't report on.
    That one sounded to me like it was pretty damning but no one would go on the record so she couldn't present it without it seeming like gossip/hearsay.
  12. But would Koenig really get so lucky, as someone asks, as to end up with a sociopath for a subject?
    I think what people who make this argument ignore is that the group of people who are game to be interviewed about their purported crimes are self-selecting, ala Durst and Adnan. I don't think it's luck that these people are the ones in the public eye, I think it's more likely that people who have gotten away with a crime start missing the attention after years out of the spotlight.
  13. And if the Serial people thought he did it, why didn't they wrap up the podcast with their verdict?
    The Serial folks are journalists and producers, not lawyers and judges. They'd be crucified if they came down on the "he's guilty" side. However, if they truly thought he were innocent, they'd be doing a lot more post-podcast to help with the appeal, etc. Koenig saying she was unable to make a conclusion seemed tantamount to her saying "well, he did it, but I can't say that." Also, what with the Jinx arrest, feels like Serial was smart to leave it open - after all, we're still discussing it...