SURVIVOR: HANDICAPPING THE FINAL 5

This show is the only thing even close to a sport that I am somewhat qualified to handicap. So here goes. Would love others' thoughts too!
  1. Will - 200:1
    "YouTube star" (can anyone verify that they did actually see his supposedly-viral video before he got on the show?) whose only lasting impression is from the insane verbal abuse he threw at domestic abuse survivor Shirin a few episodes ago. He has not made one good strategic move and seems like a horrendous human.
  2. Rodney - 10:1
    This Bah-ston strong guy actually started out kind of entertaining, but his antics soon shifted toward annoying. His constant whining about never being taken on reward trips especially grates - if you want to go, WIN THE CHALLENGE - and his chauvinism is beyond. Only way he wins is if it's him, Will, and Sierra at the end and people can't remember who Sierra is.
  3. Sierra - 8:1
    Sierra has at least thought about making some big moves in the game. She's chickened out before actually making any, though. If she can sell that as "staying loyal to my alliance even when it would've looked like a big move to flip" instead of "being a boring bump on a log," she might have something. But she only wins if she's at the final vote with the two guys above.
  4. Carolyn - 3:2
    "Mama C" has stepped up her game since it became an individual one, winning multiple challenges and thereby proving herself a physical threat as well as an intellectual one. Her best move, in my opinion, was finding a hidden immunity idol and NOT TELLING ANYONE (the Achilles' Heel of most Survivors) so she could whip it out at last week's tribal, saving her butt and shocking Dan. But she hasn't played as hard as...
  5. Mike - even money
    If this guy goes to the final 3, he wins. He's played a hard-fought, at times desperate, at times confounding game that's overall reminiscent of Tony from a few seasons back. Both Tony and Mike were always hustling, and at times their overthinking a situation led them to make enemies they could have easily avoided. Tony still won in the end. Will Mike? I think if he wins final immunity he's got it in the bag. If not, he's gone before he even gets a chance to make his case.