OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Nominations come out on Tuesday and I am PUMPED!
  1. BEST PICTURE
  2. La La Land 🌅
    Moonlight's getting all the critics awards, but I feel like the Oscars will stick with the traditional front runner, which I'd be happy with. I think La La Land has the slightest edge over Moonlight
  3. Moonlight 🌕
    I'd also be happy with Moonlight winning, and it'd make for a great, historical win.
  4. Manchester by the Sea 🛥
    Seems like the next biggest threat
  5. Arrival 👽
    Always love seeing a great sci-fi film push its way into the race
  6. Lion 🔍
    Always need that sentimental tear jerker in there
  7. Hell or High Water 💰
    A bit unconventional, a gritty indie sustained its buzz for over half the year
  8. Fences 🏚
    And this is where it starts to get a bit shaky, Fences missed out on the Globes, but I think it has the favor to get in for Best Picture
  9. Silence ✝️
    I feel so bad for Scorsese, he spends like 20 years making this or whatever and then he releases it so late and so exclusively, and then it gets left out of the Oscars race. This might just be wishful thinking considering the other categories are too full to make room for it
  10. Hidden Figures 🚀
    If there are 9, I think Hidden Figures will make it in. But that's where it will stop.
  11. BEST DIRECTOR
  12. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
    Again, I would happy if either La La Land or Moonlight won, but Chazelle's ambitious and creatively invigorated direction makes LA look like a dreamscape, and who can deny the appeal of those dazzling musical numbers?
  13. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
    Although, Jenkins really made something wonderful and refreshing and super super emotional. There's a real personal touch to this, but also a masterful level of craftsmanship to the film. It's funny, because Chazelle and Jenkins would both set records if they won. Chazelle would be the youngest winner, and Jenkins would be the first African-American winner
  14. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
    I love his work, and it's exciting to see Villeneuve's grand vision be recognized for once.
  15. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
    Could be shut out, but I think it has enough momentum to make it into this
  16. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
    I think it's between him and Garth Davis for Lion. Part of me thinking Nocturnal Animals is gonna get the Gone Girl treatment, where it's recognized by every other awards, but leaves a bad taste in the mouths of Academy voters. It'd be cool to see a gay Director nomination, but I'm not too crazy about this film
  17. BEST ACTOR
  18. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
    I think he'll win, unless the controversy catches up to him. I'm conflicted on whether he deserves to win, part of me doesn't want to see him on stage accepting an award. But part of me really wants to see Brie Larson carelessly congratulating him.
  19. Denzel Washington, Fences
    I have no idea how he missed out on BAFTA. He's the biggest threat I think
  20. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
    Would be better if this was for Silence, but whatever.
  21. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
    Kinda feels like a coattail nomination, but he is really great. And I love him, it almost makes up for his snubs for Blue Valentine and Lars and the Real Girl. ALMOST.
  22. Viggo Mortenson, Captain Fantastic
    Really surprising he made it this far, but good to see. It's between him and Joel Egerton for Loving for the last slot.
  23. BEST ACTRESS
  24. Emma Stone, La La Land
    I really really really want her to win. A) I love her performance and she deserves it (will be updating my favorite performances list) B) it just feels iconic to me C) I want her to be an Oscar winner, because Portman already is.
  25. Natalie Portman, Jackie
    She was great, amazing, wonderful, all that. But she's already won. And I like Stone's by a lot more.
  26. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
    I still haven't seen this and it kills me. But she won the Globe for Drama Actress, which is a major indicator that she'll make it in.
  27. Amy Adams, Arrival
    6th nomination here we come!
  28. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
    She's being shut out a little, but she looks wonderful in this. It's between her and Ruth Negga for Loving, I think.
  29. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
  30. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
    This category is a mess. Ali should win.
  31. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
    I think he's a safe bet, but not necessarily a threat.
  32. Dev Patel, Lion
    Haven't seen this, was surprised he was placed in supporting, but he's hitting all the precursors so it seems likely.
  33. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
    Wow this is category fraud, but whatever. He was charming.
  34. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
    His age could prevent this cuz the Academy is a bunch of old farts, and this character is a little divisive, but he was great and I hope he gets in.
  35. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
  36. Viola Davis, Fences
    I can't believe this is going to happen, Viola Davis is finally going to win an Oscar. I can't wait for her speech, I'm going to have to keep a pile of socks handy cuz she's gonna keep knocking them off
  37. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
    She's so sweet and lovely in interviews and I love her dresses at all the shows. I will cry during her Oscar clip, but I will cheer when Viola wins.
  38. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
    Wonderful. This feels like a real comeback, even though she's only been gone for like 5 years.
  39. Nicole Kidman, Lion
    Also nice to see Kidman staying relevant
  40. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
    I honestly never thought Octavia Spencer would be nominated again after winning for The Help. But I'm glad she is, she's consistently entertaining and isn't vain in taking even the smallest of roles.
  41. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
  42. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
    I think they'll give Lonergan the Oscar unless La La Land sweeps completely. But this would be a nice bone to throw him
  43. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
    Would be nice to see and I love this film so much, but I get bored when one movie wins everything
  44. Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
    Seems like a lock. Cool.
  45. Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou, The Lobste
    My favorite though, I really hope this isn't wishful thinking. The best screenplay of the year.
  46. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
    I was trying to think of what would fill this last spot, I think this might make it in.
  47. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
  48. Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight
    I think this will win.
  49. Eric Heisserer, Arrival
    Cerebral, intelligent, scientific, emotional. Seems like a lock.
  50. August Wilson, Fences
    Literally just the play script transcribed for the screen, should not even been in the race but whatever.
  51. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
    Seems like Nocturnal Animals' best bet at a nomination.
  52. Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
    I hate to see Loving get shut out, but I think this will make it in instead.
  53. ANIMATED FEATURE
  54. Zootopia
    Would make a worthy winner
  55. Kubo and the Two Strings
    Would make an even worthier winner. Would hopefully establish Laika studios as a major player in the animation industry. I mean it already is, but it's always going to be in Disney/Pixar's shadow unless it dethrones it
  56. Moana
    Gorgeous and fun, but it might be weirdly snubbed for no reason
  57. The Red Turtle
    Since the Animation Branch gets to decide what films get nominated, I think this will get in. Because speaking as an *animator* this was my favorite of the year. And hand drawn usually gets in based on craftsmanship alone
  58. My Life as a Zucchini
    Same with claymation, if it's hand made it gains respect and acclaim. But this has also been getting good reviews, but has weirdly been pushed into Foreign Feature categories instead of Animated Feature. Oh well, either way it would be an inspired choice